Latest Special Reports - provided by XM

Special Reports

XM Research - 2 days ago

FX Year Ahead 2024: As the race to cut begins, which currency will come out the winner?

Will Fed officials be the first to cut rates or will the ECB beat them to it? Falling inflation everywhere means a bearish US dollar is not a given Yen stands to gain from rate cuts as BoJ may hike Is sterling set for another bumpy year? Aussie and kiwi pin hopes on China recovery, loonie looks to oil boost Will the dollar bears finally get their way in 2024? After two consecutive years of gains, a correction in the mighty US dollar was well overdue in 2023. The greenbac

XM Research - 3 weeks ago

Does the Santa Claus rally really exist?

US equities exhibit a strongly positive year-end performance post-Thanksgiving FX pairs do not follow a specific pattern in the examined period Gold and USDJPY rally every time the Thanksgiving holiday falls on November 23 We are nearing the end of another trading year and the newswires are crammed with stories about the famous Santa Claus rally.

XM Research - 3 weeks ago

Has the dollar rally run its course?

Dollar slides as investors pencil in 100bps worth of Fed rate cuts US economy is expected to slow, but still fare better than its major peers Fed likely to begin rate reductions next year, but ECB may cut earlier Aussie the most likely candidate to outperform the greenback Jobs and inflation data hurt the dollar The US dollar suffered a major blow this week after the US CPI data revealed that inflation cooled by more than anticipated in October, adding credence to investors’

XM Research - 4 weeks ago

Yen keeps sinking, will Tokyo intervene again?

Japanese yen loses over 13% this year as interest rate differentials widen Risk of another round of FX intervention is rising, but at what point? Trend reversal is a story for next year - for now, outlook remains negative Yen sinks despite favorable news The Japanese yen remains the ‘sick man’ of the FX market. It almost touched a three-decade low against the US dollar this week, falling back to levels that prompted Tokyo to intervene in the FX market last year to

XM Research - 1 month ago

Is the geopolitical rally in gold exhausted?

Gold prices retreat from recent highs, despite sharp drop in US yields It seems safe-haven flows are unwinding as geopolitical nerves calm For gold to rally back to record highs, it might need a recession Sinking yields unable to boost gold On paper, last week had all the elements to be incredibly bullish for gold. Yields on US government bonds came crashing down, which in turn inflicted heavy damage on the US dollar.

XM Research - 1 month ago

Could surprise indices explain market movements?

Surprise indices are an easy way of mapping the current state of an economy Our index confirms that the US economy has been losing steam the past few weeks Could EURUSD moves be explained by our surprise indices? Theory states that the price of financial assets should reflect the underlying economic conditions in the respective region. While this tends to occur from a long-term perspective, a good chunk of the movements occurring in the short-term are dictated by sentiment and the

XM Research - 2 months ago

Will Q3 earnings season halt the retreat in stocks? – Stock Markets

Earnings parade unofficially starts next week as stocks undergo a downside correction A 0.1% annual earnings drop projected for the S&P 500, forecasts revised higher Surging Treasury yields bite stocks, raging dollar an additional headwind US indices retreat as investors face ‘higher for longer’ reality In the third quarter, US stocks gave back some of their impressive 2023 gains as markets started bracing for a protracted period of high interest rates. As a result,

XM Research - 2 months ago

Are stock markets still overvalued?

Stock markets have retreated lately, as bond yields stormed higher But equity valuations are still stretched and earnings growth is stagnant Sky-high yields and global slowdown could keep markets under pressure Stocks drop as yields soar The phenomenal rally on Wall Street lost some steam in the third quarter, mostly because of the seismic moves in bond markets.

XM Research - 2 months ago

As US yields surge, how high can they go?

Skyrocketing bond yields put markets in a spin Fed’s higher for longer calls grow louder US 10-year yield approaches 4.8% at 16-year high Can they reach 5.0% and how soon before something breaks? Yields heeding the higher for longer message Yields on government bonds are flying again as central banks are all singing from the same hymn sheet lately, flagging that interest rates will stay high for a longer period of time.

XM Research - 3 months ago

Gold decouples from interest rates, what’s next?

Gold prices have remained stable lately, even as interest rates shot higher Central bank purchases have boosted demand, offsetting impact from rates Downside risks dominate for now, but longer-term outlook seems bright Gold stable, despite ‘bad news’ Gold continues to trade with impressive resilience. Even though conditions in financial markets have turned against the precious metal in recent months, gold prices have not absorbed much damage, defying the negative pressure exer

XM Research - 3 months ago

Oil prices charge higher, but rally has an expiration date

Oil prices stage impressive rally, driven by a classic supply shortage This occurred despite worries of lower demand from Europe and China Risk is that US ramps up production, putting an expiration date on this rally Crude deficit Oil prices went through the roof in recent months as the market encountered a serious supply deficit, courtesy of Saudi Arabia and Russia.

XM Research - 3 months ago

Swiss franc shines bright, but will SNB clip its wings?

Stellar year for Swiss franc, tied for best-performing major currency End to negative rates, FX interventions, and safety flows helped Next week's SNB decision and risk tone could decide franc's fate Flying under the radar Even though it hasn’t attracted many headlines, the Swiss franc has gone on a silent winning streak. It is virtually tied with the British pound as the top-performing currency of this year, while it has gained more than 3% against both the US dollar and

XM Research - 3 months ago

With clouds gathering over the UK economy, what’s next for the pound?

Although the Bank of England is expected to keep raising rates for a while longer, the pound has lost decent ground lately against its US counterpart as traders seem to have been paying growing attention to growth dynamics. With underlying inflation more than three times the BoE’s 2% objective, will BoE policymakers stay keen to continue pressing the hike button or will they turn to a more cautious stance in order to safeguard the local economy?

XM Research - 3 months ago

Will the US dollar realign with its strong fundamentals?

It is crystal clear that the United States has the superior economy at this stage of the cycle, especially when compared to Europe or China. And yet, this economic strength has not translated into a full-scale US dollar rally. What’s the missing ingredient for that to change? Growth differentials There’s been a striking divergence in the performance of major economies this year.

XM Research - 3 months ago

Has euro/dollar entered a bearish trend or is it in a correction?

With economic numbers out of the Eurozone heightening recession concerns, and US data keep pointing to a superior US economy, the euro/dollar pair has been in a sliding mode recently. ECB seen holding its fire next week At the last ECB meeting, policymakers raised interest rates by a quarter point, but they did not commit to further moves, with President Lagarde replying with a “decisive maybe” when asked whether they are planning to hike again in September.

XM Research - 4 months ago

How much trouble is China’s economy in and is there a risk for global contagion?

China has long been the world’s growth engine, but that status is under threat as its economic recovery has hit a major stumbling block and the high-growth era seems to be well and truly over. Exports are falling, consumers aren’t spending much, bank lending is slowing and the crisis in the property sector only seems to be deepening. Can the Chinese government navigate its way out of this mess, which is partly its own doing, or is there more pain to come?

XM Research - 4 months ago

How long can the euro ignore recession risks?

The Eurozone economy seems to be rolling over. Business surveys paint an ugly picture, especially in Germany, where economic activity is already contracting. And yet, the euro has not absorbed any significant damage. What’s behind this FX resilience and is a ‘reality check’ imminent? Storm clouds gathering It’s been a tough few quarters for the euro area economy.

XM Research - 4 months ago

Is gold destined to lose more of its shine?

With US Treasury yields and the dollar marching north, gold has come under selling interest, breaking last week below the key zone of $1,900. Although the short-term picture of the precious metal appears to have turned bearish, whether larger declines are in store will likely depend on Fed Chair Powell’s monetary policy remarks at Jackson Hole on Friday.

XM Research - 4 months ago

Performance of key market instruments when the 10-year US yield rises above 4%

August is traditionally seen as a quiet month, but once again significant developments are taking place globally. In particular, the 10-year US yield has climbed decisively above the 4% threshold as market participants are scrambling to explain this move amidst a low liquidity environment. A quick look at market history could give us some valuable insight as to what the future holds for euro-dollar and other key market instruments.

XM Research - 4 months ago

Will Japan intervene to rescue the battered yen?

The Japanese yen has resumed its meltdown, falling victim to widening rate differentials and rising energy costs. Despite the currency trading at levels that prompted FX intervention last year, Japanese authorities don’t appear so concerned this time, which suggests that another round of intervention is some distance away. For this dynamic to change, USD/JPY would need to approach the 150 region in a hurry. Yen feels the blues It has been another bruising year for the Japanese yen, as the

Trade Ideas

View All

SymbolSourceDirection

Market Summary

Disclaimer: The XM Group entities provide execution-only service and access to our Online Trading Facility, permitting a person to view and/or use the content available on or via the website, is not intended to change or expand on this, nor does it change or expand on this. Such access and use are always subject to: (i) Terms and Conditions; (ii) Risk Warnings; and (iii) Full Disclaimer. Such content is therefore provided as no more than general information. Particularly, please be aware that the contents of our Online Trading Facility are neither a solicitation, nor an offer to enter any transactions on the financial markets. Trading on any financial market involves a significant level of risk to your capital.

All material published on our Online Trading Facility is intended for educational/informational purposes only, and does not contain – nor should it be considered as containing – financial, investment tax or trading advice and recommendations; or a record of our trading prices; or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instruments; or unsolicited financial promotions to you.

Any third-party content, as well as content prepared by XM, such as: opinions, news, research, analyses, prices and other information or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an “as-is” basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, it would be considered as marketing communication under the relevant laws and regulations. Please ensure that you have read and understood our Notification on Non-Independent Investment. Research and Risk Warning concerning the foregoing information, which can be accessed here.

Special Reports

Trade Ideas

Market Summary

XM Live Chat