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Market Comment

Market Comment – Fedspeak and US retail sales could test dollar’s resilience

Fedspeak could prove market-moving this week Retail sales could surprise on the downside RBA members discussed again to hike rates Dollar still in charge but aussie rallies Fed speakers to move the market again? Amidst a holiday-shortened week, Fed speakers will be out in force, and it will be interesting to see if the hawks adopt an even more aggressive rhetoric.
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Market Comment – Euro extends losses on French election jitters

Euro hits 6-week low as risk premium for French debt jumps But equities mixed as selloff eases Trio of central bank decisions eyed Euro rocked by fresh fears of a debt crisis Concerns about the real risk of a far-right government in France continue to dog the euro after they resurfaced towards the end of last week. Having shed more than 1% so far in June, the euro is struggling to hold on to the $1.07 level on Monday and is currently trading at more than six-week lows.
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Market Comment – Dollar higher, yen under pressure but stocks feel good

Yen suffers from BoJ's inactivity Dollar recovers from Wednesday’s underperformance US stock indices’ euphoria continues BoJ meeting held no surprises The yen is under pressure again today as the Bank of Japan kept its interest rate unchanged and decided to trim its bond buying programme but postponed the announcement of the new size of bond purchases until the July meeting.
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Market Comment – Fed stops dollar’s CPI-related bleed, BoJ next

Dollar tumbles after weaker-than-expected CPI data Recovers somewhat after Fed signals one rate cut BoJ decision looms as investors bet on July hike US CPI data propels Wall Street to fresh records Inflation slows, Fed sees one rate cut in 2024 After a turbulent session, the US dollar finished lower against all its major counterparts on Wednesday.
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Market Comment – Traders lock gaze on US inflation and Fed decision

Dollar awaits US CPI data and Fed projections Euro still feels the heat of EU elections Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit fresh records ahead of Fed US CPI data and Fed to rock the boat The US dollar traded mixed on Tuesday, extending its gains against the euro, the yen and the franc, but losing some ground versus the kiwi and the pound. Today, the greenback seems to be stabilizing against most of its peers as traders may have adopted a more cautious stance ahead of today’s US CPI data
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Market Comment – Market prepares for Wednesday’s events

Euro tries to recoup part of Monday’s losses US stock indices trade sideways but volatility remains high Lighter US calendar but some interest on the 10-year bond auction Pound is on the backfoot after the weaker jobs data Euro tries to recover from Monday’s drop The euro remains on the backfoot following Sunday’s European election results.
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Market Comment – Dollar rallies on NFP, euro slips after EU vote

US nonfarm payrolls surge past expectations Dollar skyrockets as Fed rate cuts are scaled back Euro slips as Macron calls snap election in France S&P 500 pulls back after hitting new record high Strong jobs report fuels dollar’s engines The US dollar rallied against all its major counterparts on Friday and continued marching north against most of them on Monday, as Friday’s US employment report revealed that the world’s largest economy added a lot more jobs than expe
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Market Comment – Dollar trades sideways ahead of NFP

ECB cuts rates but outlook remains unclear Market is focusing on the US labour market data Weaker prints could open the door to a dovish Fed meeting Stock markets could suffer if there is an upside surprise today ECB cuts rates but the outlook remains unclear The ECB confirmed the overwhelming expectations and announced a 25bps rate cut on Thursday.
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Market Comment – ECB cut awaited as Wall Street sets new record

ECB expected to follow in BoC’s footsteps and cut by 25bps Fed rate cut hopes rise despite upbeat ISM services PMI Dollar mostly steady, stocks surge higher ECB set to deliver this week’s second cut The European Central Bank is on course to become the second central bank in the G7 this week to lower borrowing costs after the Bank of Canada paved the way on Wednesday.
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Market Comment – Fed rate cut bets grow but dollar steadies, BoC to likely cut

Soft US data continues to pile up, boosting Fed rate cut bets But dollar on steadier footing ahead of ISM services PMI Bank of Canada expected to cut rates today, loonie slips Oil slide deepens, stocks struggle for direction All eyes on ISM services PMI after soft data run After repeated setbacks, the needle finally seems to be shifting for the Fed to start cutting rates soon, with bets for a September move gaining significant traction in recent days.
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Market Comment – Market craves weaker US data

Monday's weaker ISM survey pushes the dollar lower Euro/dollar rallies to a 3-month high ahead of the ECB BoC could announce a rate cut tomorrow; loonie may suffer Oil tanks as bearish factors multiply Dollar gets on the backfoot A rather busy week for the US economy started on the back foot for the US dollar yesterday as the ISM manufacturing survey edged lower in the sub-50 territory, pointing to a deteriorating outlook for this sector.
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Market Comment – Steady start as markets digest data ahead of rate decisions and NFP

ECB cuts pared back after CPI uptick, but Fed hopes rise on softer core PCE BoC to likely join ECB in cutting rates this week after GDP miss Upbeat Asian PMIs boost equities ahead of US jobs report Oil prices muted as OPEC+ decision sends mixed signals on output ECB and BoC take centre stage After much speculation all year on who will press the rate cut button first and when, the European Central Bank looks set to beat the Federal Reserve in cutting first.
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Market Comment – US and Eurozone inflation data in focus

Dollar pulls back ahead of core PCE price index Euro awaits Eurozone flash CPI data Wall Street closes in the red, oil extends slide Core PCE inflation enters the spotlight The US dollar pulled back across the board yesterday as the second estimate of US GDP revealed that the world’s largest economy grew at a slower pace than previously estimated in Q1. Treasury yields slid as well, but market expectations with regards to the Fed’s future course of action were not altered muc
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Market Comment – Dollar rallies as market angst spreads

Higher Treasury yields contribute to stock indices’ retreat Euro under pressure as the pound benefits from the election Gold fails to benefit from risk-off; oil drops ahead of OPEC meeting Dollar is on the front foot The US dollar is gaining against its main counterparts with the euro/dollar pair dropping to a 2-week low. The catalyst for this move appears to be the bond market as the 10-year US Treasury yield is hovering above 4.6% for the first time since early May.
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Market Comment – Dollar trades sideways as focus turns to US yields

US stock indices under pressure as yields climb German CPI could dictate next week’s ECB rhetoric Yen underperformance lingers; all eyes on Friday’s Tokyo CPI Dollar rallied on Tuesday, US stock indices were mixed Following a couple of negative sessions, the US dollar showed its strength yesterday as it managed to outperform the euro.
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Market Comment – Euro takes advantage of weak dollar

Dollar extends slide on thin holiday trading More Fed officials to step onto the rostrum Euro gains ahead of key inflation data Wall Street set to open higher, oil rebounds Will Fed officials come to the dollar’s rescue? With US and UK markets staying closed on Monday, the dollar extended its slide against most of its major peers, trading on the back foot today as well.
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Market Comment – Dollar steadies, awaiting fresh catalyst

US dollar stabilizes after profit-taking pullback Investors agree with Fed’s ‘higher for longer’ view Wall Street rebounds as AI remains main driver Gold gains, but remains well off its record Higher for even longer The US dollar pulled back on Friday against most of its major counterparts, perhaps as the slight downward revisions to the UoM inflation expectations for May prompted traders to lock some profits on the long positions they initiated earlier in the week.
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Market Comment – Sentiment sours after strong US PMIs; stocks slip, dollar climbs

Rate cut expectations take another hit after upbeat PMIs Dollar rises to 10-day high, Nvidia rally unable to lift Wall Street Higher for longer weighs on oil and gold Fed may not cut until after election It’s been a bad week for investors hoping to see a near-term rate cut by the Fed as expectations have been pushed out further towards the end of the year.
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Market Comment – Dollar benefits from hawkish Fed minutes

Dollar rallies as both gold and bitcoin fall Early UK elections called after mixed UK CPI report EZ PMIs unlikely to stop the ECB from cutting rates in June Dollar rallies on the back of the minutes The Fed minutes showed a much more hawkish discussion at the May 1 meeting than originally portrayed by Chairman Powell. In particular, the comment about the willingness of various participants to tighten policy further should risks to the inflation outlook materialize, contradicts Po
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Market Comment – Dollar under pressure as Fed speakers multiply

FOMC minutes in the spotlight today Mixed UK CPI probably keeps the door closed to a June move RBNZ surprises with its hawkishness; kiwi benefits Nvidia reports after the US market close Dollar remains on the back foot The quieter data calendar has turned the market’s attention to the plethora of Fed speakers eager to express their opinions ahead of the next blackout period.
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