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Comments & Briefs

Daily Comment – Dollar seeks direction amidst tepid market conditions

Fed speakers and minutes in the spotlight todayDollar’s rally pauses, but oil and gold suffer lossesRBNZ cuts rates by 50bps, kiwi weakensChina schedules another press conference as local stocks plungeFed members continue to support a November rate cutThe public discussion regarding the Fed’s next steps continues, as a plethora of Fed members are on the wires almost on a daily basis.
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Daily Comment – Risk appetite ebbs as markets fret over China stimulus, Fed rate cuts

Risk sentiment dented as China refrains from fresh stimulus measuresFed officials give cautious green light to more rate cutsDollar and equities turn lower after recent gains as US CPI awaitedMarkets consolidate as China announcement disappointsOptimism about China’s newfound love for bold stimulus policies faded slightly on Tuesday as a much-anticipated press briefing by the country’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) ended without any significant new measures being announce
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Daily Comment – Dollar stands tall after robust jobs report

Strong US data dent chances of a 50bps Fed rate cutPlethora of Fed speakers on the wires todayDollar enjoys strong gains, stocks rally unexpectedlyOil pushes higher as gold’s retreat continuesUS jobs report surprises to the upside, doves are displeasedAnother exciting week commences as market participants are still digesting the unexpectedly strong US labour market data.
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Quick Brief – US labour market data boosts both the dollar and stocks

Non-farm payrolls jump by 254k, a 6-month highUnemployment dips and hourly earnings surprise to the upsideDollar benefits, US stocks also bounce higherThe September non-farm payrolls report printed at 254k, a 6-month high, and well above forecasts for a 140k increase. With the August print revised slightly higher to 159k, the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1% and the average hourly earnings growth jumping to 4%, one could say the latest set of labour market data was unexpectedly strong. The ch
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Daily Comment – Will the dollar or stocks smile after the non-farm payrolls print?

Spotlight falls on the key US labour market dataNon-farm payrolls to rise by 140k, but could surprise to the upsideDollar to enjoy a strong set of data, equities prefer weaker printsEuro suffering continues, while both gold and oil advanceCould the US labour market data produce a surprise?The countdown to the most crucial set of US data during October is nearly over.
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Quick brief – ISM non-mfg PMI beats forecasts, Biden comments on Iran’s oil facilities

ISM non-mfg PMI rises faster than expected in September; employment index declinesBiden alleges that Israel is preparing to carry out attacks on Iran’s oil sites The ISM non-manufacturing PMI survey indicated growth for the third straight month in September, with the index reaching 54.9 - the highest reading since February 2023 - surpassing analysts’ expectations of 51.7 and August’s reading of 51.4.The new orders index saw a significant increase of over 6 points to reach 59.4, while the
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Daily Comment – Dollar extends gains on upbeat US data

Dollar gains as ADP jobs report beats estimatesYen falls on prime minister Ishiba’s dovish remarksPound collapses after BoE’s Bailey warns about faster cutsWall Street virtually unchanged, gold retreats, oil extends gainsUS data allow dollar to extend latest recoveryThe dollar extended its gains against its major peers on Wednesday and during the Asian session Thursday.
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Daily Comment – Safe havens gain, stocks slip as Iran attacks Israel

Iran fires missiles at Israel in retaliation moveDollar, yen and gold attract safe-haven flowsOil rebounds on supply concernsWall Street pulls back ahead of key US dataDollar turns into safe have as Iran attacks IsraelAfter Powell’s boost on Monday, the dollar extended its gains against most of its peers on Tuesday, with the only currency resisting the dollar’s strength being the Japanese yen.Having said that though, the catalyst wasn’t receding bets about a back-to-back double rate cut by
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Quick Brief – ISM manufacturing survey fails to please the Fed hawks

ISM manufacturing survey prints at 47.2, below forecastsEmployment subindex erases the August improvementStocks are firmly in the red, smaller reaction in euro/dollarThe ISM manufacturing survey printed at 47.2, below market forecasts for a small improvement. Interestingly, the important employment subindex resumed its downward trend, with the remaining subcomponents also failing to improve.Additionally, the final print of the September PMI manufacturing survey edged higher but remains stuck bel
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Quick Brief – Eurozone CPI drops below 2%, cementing October cut as euro slips

Eurozone inflation falls below ECB’s 2% targetUnderlying inflation gauges also declineEuro tests $1.11 as October rate cut looks almost certainInflation in the euro area has hit the lowest since June 2021, with the headline CPI rate dropping from 2.2% in August to 1.8% y/y in September. The two core measures of CPI that exclude volatile items eased marginally to 2.7% y/y.The euro came under fresh selling pressure on the back of the data, but managed to find support at the $1.11 level as the fl
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Daily Comment – Dollar gets a boost from Fed’s Powell but will the move last?

Fed’s Powell talks down expectations for another 50bps rate cutDollar benefits, US stocks shake off the initial negative reactionEurozone CPI could open the door to a stronger October rate cutYen suffering continues, late-October general election is calledPowell favours measured stepsWith the world closely following the developments in the Middle East and, more specifically the start of the Israeli ground operation in Lebanon, Fed Chairman Powell chipped in the discussion about the size of th
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Quick Brief – German CPI eases further

Preliminary German CPI drops to 1.6% yoy changeThe October ECB rate cut is almost a done dealEuro/dollar in the green again today The German preliminary inflation report for September produced a downside surprise by printing at 1.6%, against expectations for a 1.7% figure, following the 1.9% yoy increase recorded in August. The respective German states’ prints led by the North-Rhine Westphalia region, announced earlier today, somewhat prepared the market for this weaker CPI print.Following Fr
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Daily Comment – PCE inflation corroborates dovish Fed bets

Softer PCE data keep chances of another 50bps Fed cut elevatedFed Chair Powell speaks, ISM PMIs and NFP on this week’s agendaYen rally pauses after Ishiba says policy should stay accommodativeAussie, kiwi and Chinese stocks celebrate PBoC’s measuresMarket assigns decent chance for back-to-back 50bps Fed cutThe dollar slipped against most of its major peers after Friday’s data revealed that the headline PCE price index slowed more than expected in August, although the more important core PC
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Quick Brief – PCE inflation data not a game changer

Headline PCE inflation slows, but core rate ticks upInvestors continue to expect 75bps of additional cuts this yearFocus now turns to next week’s ISM PMI and NFP dataThe headline PCE inflation rate dropped to 2.2% y/y in August, confounding expectations of a smaller drop to 2.3% from 2.5%. The more important core PCE rate ticked up to 2.7% y/y fr
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Daily Comment – Markets maintain upbeat mood ahead of PCE inflation

China stimulus and rate cut bets propel stocks higherDollar caught in choppy trading as crucial inflation data awaitedYen surges as new LDP leader in favour of rate hikes set to become PMGold scales fresh record highs before easingMarkets lifted by China’s stimulus blitzEquity markets look set to finish the week in a buoyant mood amid renewed optimism about China’s economic prospects following Beijing’s latest stimulus efforts and as the Fed and ECB strive to achieve a soft landing.Earlier
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Daily Comment – Dollar bounces back as stocks lifted from more Chinese stimulus

US dollar rebounds ahead of Powell and other Fed speakersUS futures also turn positive as Asian rally continues on China optimismSNB cuts rates by 25 bps as expected as ECB mulls October cutDovish Fed bets can’t keep the dollar downThe US dollar is holding firm on Thursday after bouncing back strongly on Wednesday to recoup some of its post-Fed losses.
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Quick Brief – Oil bears take the driver’s seat

Oil tumbles as Saudi Arabia prepares to drop $100 price targetPBoC measures fail to provide supportMarket ignores US inventories and tensions in the Middle EastOil prices fell around 2.5% on Thursday due to easing concerns about supply disruptions in Libya after factions signed an official accord on appointing a central bank governor, thereby ending the dispute regarding their central bank and oil revenue.The tumble accelerated today after the Financial Times reported that Saudi Arabia is ready
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Daily Comment – Equities are on autopilot but cannot help the dollar

Increased expectations for another 50bps Fed cutDollar continues to suffer but euro’s strength is perplexingPositive impact of China’s measures gradually fadesGold and oil diverge despite Middle East developmentsIs the Fed preparing for another 50bps cut? The markets seem to have settled down after last week’s big events with equities rallying, the US dollar underperforming and gold climbing regardless of the newsflow.
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Daily Comment – China’s stimulus blitz supports positive equities sentiment

Dollar tries to recover as Fedspeak favors further cuts China announces new measures, positive initial market reaction Aussie benefits from another hawkish RBA meeting Gold, oil and pound rallies continue   Debate for the next Fed cut intensifies US stocks remain in a positive mood as Fed speakers continue to advocate for further rate cuts, despite the fact that the US data confirm the strength of the US economy.
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Quick Brief – US PMIs, Fed speak point to 25-bps cuts but markets not convinced

US business activity remains solid despite a slump across the Atlantic Fed officials don’t see need for another 50-bps reduction Dollar holds firm, but investors still expect 75-bps cut by year-end   The flash PMI estimates for the United States did not generate the same doom and gloom as the Eurozone readings did earlier in the day.
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