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Previews

Eurozone PMIs eyed as euro’s focus turns to rate cuts beyond June – Preview

Eurozone appears to be on the mend but ECB still on track to cut in June For the euro, rate outlook beyond June increasingly more important Flash PMI readings for April are due on Tuesday, 08:00 GMT Will PMIs confirm tepid recovery signs? The euro area economy stagnated in the middle of 2023 but narrowly managed to dodge a technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
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Supercharged US dollar turns to GDP growth data – Preview

Dollar goes on a rampage as traders unwind Fed rate cut bets Risk aversion in stock markets amid Iran tensions helps too Upcoming US releases will decide whether rally can go further   Dollar shines bright It’s been a phenomenal year for the US dollar so far. The greenback has gained more than 4% against a basket of currencies, turbocharged by a series of solid economic readings that have forced investors to dial back bets of imminent Fed rate cuts.  Heavy government sp
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Week Ahead – US GDP and BoJ decision on top of next week’s agenda

US GDP, core PCE and PMIs the next tests for the dollar Investors await BoJ for guidance about next rate hike EU and UK PMIs, as well as Australian CPIs also on tap Earnings season heats up as tech giants report Will US data throw more Fed rate cuts off the table? The dollar staged a strong recovery the last couple of weeks, with the bulls being encouraged to initiate long positions as soon as the US CPI data revealed that inflation in the world’s largest economy reaccelerat
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China’s Q1 GDP growth next on the Asian calendar – Preview

China’s Q1 GDP expected to fall below 5.0% on Tuesday at 02:00 GMT Expansion to remain solid but unlikely to quell stimulus calls  AUDUSD tests lower boundary of the 2024 range    China to report weaker GDP after disappointing trade data China remains a major trade partner for advanced economies such as the US and Europe, especially in the manufacturing sector, where its global dominance in terms of production and value added surpasses its peers by a large margin.
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Weekly Technical Outlook – GBPUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD

Will UK CPI data drive cable even lower? USDJPY still skyrockets ahead of Japanese CPI China GDP may help AUDUSD exit from trading range UK CPI data --> GBPUSD Inflation in the United Kingdom dropped to 3.4% in February, and experts predict that it will fall to    3.1% in March. It is anticipated that the core figure will likewise fall once more.
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UK inflation report could shift the market’s focus away from geopolitics – Preview

BoE’s determination could be tested if this week’s CPI prints surprise on the upside Pound could benefit from a strong set of data this week Employment data will be released on Tuesday; the inflation report on Wednesday Inflation in the spotlight At the last Bank of England meeting, which is still relatively fresh in the market’s mind, the Committee maintained its balanced approach.
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Week Ahead – More inflation data on the way as rate cut bets thrown into disarray

CPI numbers due in the UK, Japan, Canada and New Zealand China to also come into the spotlight as Q1 GDP eyed US retail sales to kickstart the week as earnings season gets underway CPI figures to headline UK data flurry After yet another hot CPI report in the United States, inflation data will remain at the forefront of the upcoming week’s releases, including in the United Kingdom.
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Will US retail sales add juice to the dollar’s rally? – Preview

US retail sales will hit the markets at 12:30 GMT Monday  Early Easter holiday likely boosted consumer spending  Another solid dataset could put more wind in the dollar’s sails   US economy outperforms By most indications, the US economy finished the first quarter on a high note. Incoming data point to a robust labor market, which has helped bolster consumer demand and in the process, reignited inflationary pressures.  The Atlanta Fed estimates real economic growth hit
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Will Friday’s data add to hopes of UK exit from recession? – Preview

Dovish BoE encourages more rate cut bets UK GDP for February expected to reveal slowdown The data comes out on Friday at 06:00 GMT Investors add to June rate cut bets after BoE decision With inflation in the UK coming down faster than previously expected, the Bank of England (BoE) appeared more dovish than expected at its latest gathering, on March 21. Once again, officials kept interest rates unchanged, but this time, there were no members voting for a hike.
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BoC to put June rate-cut on the map-tentatively – Preview

BoC monetary report due on Wednesday 13:45 GMT, press conference at 14:30 GMT Interest rates to remain steady this time, but policymakers might support a June rate cut USDCAD maintains soft uptrend, needs a clear close above 1.3600 to rally   BoC closer to its inflation goal than its major peers The Bank of Canada (BoC) will probably stick to the sidelines during its coming policy meeting on April 10, leaving interest rates unchanged at 5.0%.
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Could the ECB adopt its June 2022 playbook and preannounce a rate cut? – Preview

The ECB meets on Thursday with strong indications for a dovish tilt Low chances of a rate cut being announced this week The euro could enjoy a short-term rally against the US dollar if ECB proves hawkish Decision will be announced on Thursday 12.15 GMT, press conference at 12:45 GMT The ECB meets this week The European Central Bank is hosting its third rate-setting gathering for 2024 on Thursday, April 11. The chances of significant announcements are quite low, but the market
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US CPI data unlikely to ease sticky inflation worries, but will markets care? - Preview

US CPI inflation expected to have ticked up in March But markets may shrug it off if core figure inches lower Data due at 13:30 GMT, Wednesday, will be followed by FOMC minutes at 18:00 GMT Will CPI report boost rate cut bets? Inflation data according to the CPI and PCE measures have started to diverge lately, clouding the outlook just as the Fed seeks more clarity on where prices are headed.
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Weekly Technical Outlook – USDJPY, EURGBP, USDCAD

USDJPY has been quiet within a range for a while. Is it time for action? EURGBP keeps looking for a bullish trend reversal as ECB rate decision looms USDCAD maintains positive structure ahead of an interesting BoC meeting   US CPI inflation --> USDJPY Wednesday will be an inflation day in the US. The new CPI data will cover March and will give a comprehensive overview of the first quarter.
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RBNZ may start laying groundwork for a rate cut - Preview

A dovish shift seems to be underway at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Technical recession and falling inflation may pave way for 2024 rate cut Is a dovish hold on the cards at Wednesday’s meeting (02:00 GMT)? Weaker economy has been good news for inflation New Zealand’s economy shrunk in the final three months of 2023, entering a technical recession for the second time in 15 months.
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Week Ahead – ECB decision and US inflation to fuel FX volatility

Central bank decisions in Eurozone, Canada, and New Zealand Highlight will be the ECB - likely to signal a rate cut in June In US, the dollar will be driven by inflation stats and Fed minutes   ECB meeting - Nearly time to cut  The Eurozone economy has gone through a rough patch over the last year. Growth has been almost stagnant, held back by Germany, which fell into contraction as a slowdown in global trade suppressed demand for exports and crippled the nation’s manufac
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Canada’s economy likely added fewer jobs in March Ivey PMI expected to rise further Loonie loses momentum ahead of Friday’s data due at 12:30 GMT Introduction In Canada, only a few data releases are scheduled for this week. On Friday, the Ivey PMI is coming out along with the employment report. Another major central bank that will begin its easing cycle in June is the Bank of Canada.
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Will the NFP report take June off the rate-cut map? – Preview

Investors have second thoughts about a Fed rate cut in June Dollar benefits from latest market repricing Spotlight turns to the NFP data on Friday at 12:30 GMT Data and Fed rhetoric weigh on Fed rate cut bets At its latest gathering, the Fed appeared more dovish than expected, still pointing to three quarter-point rate cuts for 2024. This allowed market participants to add back to their June cut bets, lifting the probability for a 25bps reduction to around 80%.
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Weekly Technical Outlook – USDJPY, EURUSD, USDCAD

USDJPY struggles below 34-year high as NFP report awaited European Flash CPI to fall but will EURUSD extend recent decrease? Canada unemployment number predicted to rise; USDCAD looks for a rebound NFP report --> USDJPY The labor market has predominantly exhibited a positive trend, albeit with a steady decline that has caused the Federal Reserve to be concerned about potential overheating.
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Week Ahead – Rate cut hopes rest on US jobs report and Eurozone flash CPI

Nonfarm payrolls report and European flash CPI to shape rate cut bets ISM PMIs to also be important for Fed expectations and US dollar Canadian employment and Chinese PMIs also on the agenda Fed hawks rear their ugly heads The March round of policy meetings reinforced June as the likely date when most central banks will begin cutting rates.
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Euro loses altitude ahead of inflation stats – Preview

Euro has been struggling lately as US dollar gained momentum Next round of inflation data is due on Wednesday at 10:00 GMT  Overall, outlook for the euro seems negative at this stage   Euro gets knocked down It’s been a difficult year for the euro so far. The single currency lost more than 2% against the US dollar in the first quarter, dragged down by a long spell of economic stagnation in the euro area, alongside mounting signs that the US economy is in much better shape.�
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