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XM Research - 2 days ago

FX Year Ahead 2024: As the race to cut begins, which currency will come out the winner?

Will Fed officials be the first to cut rates or will the ECB beat them to it? Falling inflation everywhere means a bearish US dollar is not a given Yen stands to gain from rate cuts as BoJ may hike Is sterling set for another bumpy year? Aussie and kiwi pin hopes on China recovery, loonie looks to oil boost Will the dollar bears finally get their way in 2024? After two consecutive years of gains, a correction in the mighty US dollar was well overdue in 2023. The greenbac

XM Research - 2 days ago

Week Ahead – Will the central bank bonanza kill the festive joy or fuel it?

Fed, ECB, BoE and SNB hold their final policy decisions of the year Will they push back on rate cut expectations? US CPI and flash PMIs will be crucial too UK GDP, Aussie jobs also on the agenda Fed to hold rates but will it signal big cuts? The Federal Reserve is almost certain to keep its policy rate unchanged on Wednesday as the US economy finally appears to be losing some steam and inflation is coming under control.

XM Research - 5 days ago

Will the US NFP report come to the dollar’s rescue? – Preview

Data and Fed rhetoric prompt investors to increase rate cut bets Dollar’s next major test comes in the form of the US jobs report The data comes out on Friday at 13:30 GMT Dollar bleeds as investors ramp up bets of massive rate cuts The US dollar has been bleeding lately as the market keeps adding to its Fed rate cut bets on every opportunity.

XM Research - 6 days ago

Weekly Technical Outlook – USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDCAD

USD/JPY hovers near a critical support zone ahead of NFP data AUD/USD rally stalls near caution area before RBA rate decision USD/CAD hopes for a rebound, but bullish outlook is not in sight US jobs data, Japan CPI --> USD/JPY It will be a busy week in the US markets as a batch of data are expected to shed some light on whether rate cuts are possible in the middle of next year.

XM Research - 6 days ago

Could the BoC remain hawkish? – Preview

BoC meets on Wednesday; it could maintain its hawkish stance Market is preparing for a series of rate cuts in 2024 Loonie’s outperformance against the US dollar could pick up speed Last Bank of Canada meeting for 2023 December starts on a high note with the final BoC meeting for 2023 held on Wednesday and the respective Fed and ECB meetings scheduled for next week.

XM Research - 1 week ago

Will the RBA maintain tightening bias after CPI miss? – Preview

RBA is expected to hold rates in December after hiking last month But will it signal future hikes or will it turn more cautious? After soft CPI, RBA’s decision on Tuesday, 3:30 GMT, poses a risk for the aussie New governor has been beating the hawkish drum The Australian economy has been gradually losing steam all year and GDP data due on December 6 is likely to show that growth slowed further in the third quarter.

XM Research - 1 week ago

Week Ahead – Nonfarm payrolls enter the spotlight, RBA and BoC decide on policy

Investors looking to US NFPs for confirmation of their Fed rate cut bets RBA could still signal that higher rates are possible But BoC may confirm that interest rates have peaked in Canada Japan’s Tokyo CPIs and employment numbers to impact BoJ speculation Will the US jobs report change the dollar’s fate? The US dollar has been suffering lately on increasing bets that the Fed will cut rates massively next year.

XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Will deeper OPEC+ output cuts matter for oil prices? – Preview

Oil prices slide after OPEC+ alliance delays meeting But recent headlines point to consensus Oil prices could gain, but any recovery may prove limited The meeting was postponed from Sunday to this Thursday OPEC+ delays decision on lack of consensus Oil prices tumbled after OPEC and other major oil producing nations, known as the OPEC+ group, decided to delay a meeting scheduled for Sunday, November 26, to Thursday, November 30. Investors may have sold black gold on concerns th

XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Dollar could get caught between soft data and hawkish Fed talk – Preview

Expected drop in core PCE inflation could fuel rate cut bets But will Fed officials move a step closer to a dovish pivot? Dollar starts week on the backfoot ahead of Thursday’s data due 13:30 GMT US inflation still headed in the right direction Whilst CPI inflation suffered a setback from the oil price rally earlier in the year, PCE inflation has maintained a downward trajectory, bolstering expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates by the middle of 2024. Spe

XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Has the inflation fire been extinguished by the ECB? – Preview

Key data releases on the menu as the ECB meets in two weeks ECB officials have been toning down their hawkish commentary The euro would welcome a strong inflation print and the ensuing hawkish rhetoric German CPI will be released on Wednesday; EZ aggregate on Thursday 10 GMT Two weeks left for the last ECB meeting for 2023 With the Thanksgiving holiday break behind us, we are on the homestretch now for 2023. The market is counting down to the last round of central bank meeting

XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Weekly Technical Outlook – WTI, USDJPY, EURUSD

OPEC+ meeting expected to cut production; WTI crude oil remains in the red US Core PCE index to soften; USDJPY fails to climb higher Eurozone flash inflation to tick lower; EURUSD holds near previous 3-month high OPEC meeting -->WTI The OPEC meeting was scheduled for November 26th but has been postponed to this Thursday. This suggests deepening alliance disagreements over whether to curtail production, according to investors.

XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Will the RBNZ pour cold water on rate cut expectations? – Preview

Since the last RBNZ meeting, data have been coming on the weak side Investors see no more hikes and expect 40bps worth of cuts for 2024 But the RBNZ is unlikely to satisfy market bets The meeting is scheduled for Wednesday, at 01:00 GMT Data points to softening economic activity At its latest gathering, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) held its Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 5.5%, noting that interest rates are constraining economic activity and are reducing inflatio

XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Week Ahead – All eyes on OPEC+ meeting, US and Eurozone inflation to dominate too

Oil’s fortunes hinge on OPEC+ meeting outcome on Thursday Eurozone flash inflation and US core PCE also due on Thursday RBNZ to likely hold rates on Wednesday Loonie faces GDP and employment tests in addition to OPEC+ decision Will OPEC+ agree to production cuts? Amid weakening growth prospects for the major economies in 2024, expectations that the big oil producers will soon announce further production cuts had been the only thing keeping a floor under the price of oil late

XM Research - 3 weeks ago

Will Japan’s CPI support a BoJ easy-policy exit early next year? – Preview

Weaker dollar helps the wounded yen recover some ground Focus turns to CPI numbers as traders speculate BoJ policy shift Accelerating inflation could bring the shift timing forward The data comes out on Thursday, at 23:30 GMT Japan phases out its ultra-loose monetary policy At their latest monetary policy decision, BoJ policymakers decided to adjust their yield curve control (YCC) framework to allow 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yields to rise above 1%.

XM Research - 3 weeks ago

UK PMIs on the menu but political difficulties reemerge – Preview

PMI survey prints will be released on Thursday amidst volatile political environment Wednesday’s Autumn statement is key as another government crisis could unfold soon Pound does not enjoy the increased domestic risks, especially as BoE remains dovish Inflation dropping but so is growth Bank of England Governor Bailey got his wish in last week’s inflation report for October.

XM Research - 3 weeks ago

Fed minutes in the spotlight as dollar skids on growing rate cut bets – Preview

FOMC minutes likely to be seen as out-of-date following recent soft data But hawkish surprise can still jolt markets as Fed rate cut bets seem overdone Can the minutes due Tuesday (19:00 GMT) offer the bruised dollar some support? Fed on pause When the Fed decided to keep interest rates unchanged at its October 31-November 1 meeting, it came closer than it has done during this tightening cycle to signalling that it is done hiking.

XM Research - 3 weeks ago

Will Eurozone's PMI data be good news for the euro? – Preview

Eurozone flash business PMI data due on Thursday 09:00 GMT The data might provide some relief, calm recession worries EZ flash business PMIs to tick higher A couple of dim US data was the key catalyst behind the euro’s 2.0% rally against the greenback last week. The common currency experienced one of its most constructive sessions so far this year, drifting as high as $1.0939, but domestic tailwinds remain absent in the euro area, making investors wonder whether the bullish tre

XM Research - 3 weeks ago

Weekly Technical Outlook – US 500, GBPUSD, USDJPY

US 500 muted ahead of FOMC minutes GBPUSD meets key levels awaiting Eurozone’s and UK PMIs Japanese inflation may drive USDJPY even lower? FOMC minutes --> US 500 The FOMC minutes are one of the highlight events of the week, coming up on Tuesday instead of Wednesday due to the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday in the US.

XM Research - 3 weeks ago

Week Ahead – Fed minutes and Eurozone PMIs on the menu

Fed minutes on Tuesday will be scrutinized for clues on rate path Eurozone business surveys to shed some light on recession risks Japanese inflation stats also in focus as yen attempts to recover Bruised dollar awaits FOMC minutes It’s been a tough month for the US dollar. A string of disappointing data releases coupled with an announcement that the Treasury will shift its debt issuance towards shorter-dated maturities came together to engineer a heavy decline in US bond

XM Research - 3 weeks ago

Could Canada's inflation produce a downside surprise? – Preview

BoC’s hawkishness depends on stronger inflation prints The October inflation report is expected on Tuesday at 15:30 GMT Aussie could get a short-term boost next week against the US dollar BoC was really worried about inflation at the October meeting At its October 25 meeting, the Bank of Canada held its main policy rate unchanged at 5%.

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