Week Ahead – Fed minutes and Eurozone PMIs on the menu
Fed minutes on Tuesday will be scrutinized for clues on rate path
Eurozone business surveys to shed some light on recession risks
Japanese inflation stats also in focus as yen attempts to recover
Bruised dollar awaits FOMC minutesIt’s been a tough month for the US dollar. A string of disappointing data releases coupled with an announcement that the Treasury will shift its debt issuance towards shorter-dated maturities came together to engineer a heavy decline in US bond yields, which in turn has reduced the dollar’s interest rate advantage. On the macro front, the labor market finally seems to be loosening. The unemployment rate has been grinding higher for several months now, providing some relief to Fed officials, as weaker employment conditions often translate into cooler inflation. Indeed, core inflation has declined steadily this year, but it remains elevated at 4%, so the Fed cannot declare victory yet.
![](https://www.xm.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/USD-vs-US-yields.png)
![](https://www.xm.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/US-CPI-vs-core-CPI.png)
![](https://www.xm.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Euro-GDP-vs-PMIs.png)
![](https://www.xm.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/USDJPY-vs-yield-spread.png)
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