Are holiday shoppers saying bah humbug so far?
Wall Street's main U.S. indexes up slightly
Real estate weakest S&P 500 sector; energy leads gainers
Dollar up; bitcoin up ~1%, crude up <2.5%; gold slides >1%
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield jumps to ~4.24%
Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at firstname.lastname@example.org
ARE HOLIDAY SHOPPERS SAYING BAH HUMBUG SO FAR?
It is the season for the so-called Santa Clause rally on Wall Street - with the market often rising as investors take heart to see consumers head to the stores.
But Morgan Stanley economist Sarah Wolfe's research points to sluggish holiday shopping with her estimate for retail sales excluding food, auto, gas and building materials suggesting a 0.1% decline for November after a 0.2% increase in October.
While Wolfe sees e-commerce sales showing less weakness than brick and mortar store sales, she cited a "notable deceleration in retail sales and overall consumer spending in Q4."
While retailers are "competing for a budget pool that is similarly sized to last year," they will have to offer competitive prices to lure shoppers inside.
Citing the firm's survey released a few weeks ago she noted that 69% of holiday shoppers said they were "waiting for retailers to offer discounts before starting their holiday shopping." Specifically, Wolfe says shoppers are looking for average discounts of 30% before opening their wallets.
And the survey also revealed a services preference over goods this holiday shopping season, Wolfe said.
In the last couple of weeks, the read on Holiday shopping/Black Friday sales still seemed in line with MS growth expectations, which are for slower sales than last year but in line with historical trends after inflation is taken into account, the economist said.
With this in mind, Wolfe cut her real PCE forecast from 2.1% to 2.0% Q/Q annualized growth in 4Q23 but kept the real GDP forecast intact at 1.0%.
On Friday, the S&P 500 retail index .SPXRT was up 0.1% on the day. It is up 1.5% since Nov. 22, the last trading day before Black Friday, which is the the unofficial start of the holiday shopping season.
FOR FRIDAY'S OTHER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
INDIVIDUAL INVESTOR BEARS STAGE A REBOUND - AAII - CLICK HERE
RARE SIGNALS MAY HAVE BULLS SMILING - CLICK HERE
JOBS, HAPPY CONSUMERS FOR CHRISTMAS: EMPLOYMENT REPORT, UMICH CLICK HERE
WALL STREET SHRUGS AFTER JOBS DATA THEN CHEERS AFTER UMICH CLICK HERE
US BANKING REGULATOR OCC ADVOCATES CAUTION AMONG AI FRENZY CLICK HERE
U.S. STOCK FUTURES DIGEST LATEST JOBS DATA CLICK HERE
J.P. MORGAN'S DIM OUTLOOK FOR 2024 CLICK HERE
WHICH EUROPEAN EQUITIES COULD BE THE SAFEST BETS IN 2024? - BOFA CLICK HERE
FINAL STRETCH FOR 'EVERYTHING RALLY'? CLICK HERE
DON'T COUNT ON RATE CUTS NEXT YEAR CLICK HERE
NOVEMBER PAYROLLS: RISKS TO THE UPSIDE? CLICK HERE
STOXX GETS LEISURE BOOST BUT MINERS DRAG CLICK HERE
EUROPEAN FUTURES RISE AHEAD OF U.S. PAYROLLS CLICK HERE
JAPAN DRAGS DOWN BONDS AS US PAYROLLS LOOM CLICK HERE
Disclaimer: The XM Group entities provide execution-only service and access to our Online Trading Facility, permitting a person to view and/or use the content available on or via the website, is not intended to change or expand on this, nor does it change or expand on this. Such access and use are always subject to: (i) Terms and Conditions; (ii) Risk Warnings; and (iii) Full Disclaimer. Such content is therefore provided as no more than general information. Particularly, please be aware that the contents of our Online Trading Facility are neither a solicitation, nor an offer to enter any transactions on the financial markets. Trading on any financial market involves a significant level of risk to your capital.
All material published on our Online Trading Facility is intended for educational/informational purposes only, and does not contain – nor should it be considered as containing – financial, investment tax or trading advice and recommendations; or a record of our trading prices; or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instruments; or unsolicited financial promotions to you.
Any third-party content, as well as content prepared by XM, such as: opinions, news, research, analyses, prices and other information or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an “as-is” basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, it would be considered as marketing communication under the relevant laws and regulations. Please ensure that you have read and understood our Notification on Non-Independent Investment. Research and Risk Warning concerning the foregoing information, which can be accessed here.