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Individual investor bears stage a rebound - AAII



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INDIVIDUAL INVESTOR BEARS STAGE A REBOUND - AAII

Pessimism among individual investors over the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rebounded from its lowest level in almost six years in the latest American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey. With this, optimism fell for the first time in five weeks, while neutral sentiment rose.

AAII noted that both bullish and bearish sentiment have returned to their respective "typical ranges."

Meanwhile, in another survey nearly half of individual investors believe investors are too bullish at this time.

AAII reported that bearish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, jumped 7.9 percentage points to 27.4%. Pessimism is below its historical average of 31.0% for the fifth consecutive week and the fifth time in 12 weeks.

Bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, slipped 1.4 percentage points to 47.3%. Optimism is above its historical average of 37.5% for the fifth consecutive week and the sixth time in nine weeks.

Neutral sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, declined 6.4 percentage points to 25.3%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the ninth time in 10 weeks.

With these changes, the bull-bear spread fell 9.3 percentage points to +19.9% from +29.2% last week. The spread is above its historical average of 6.5% for the fifth time in nine weeks.



In this week’s special question AAII asked its members if they think other investors are too bullish or bearish right now. Here is how they see it:

They are too bullish: 48.6%

They are too bearish: 12.5%

Their sentiment toward the market is about right: 27.4%

Not sure/No opinion: 11.3%

(Terence Gabriel)

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