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EURGBP


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Midweek Technical Look – USDJPY, GBPUSD, EURGBP

USDJPY confirms bearish trend reversal after brutal decline; key support nearby GBPUSD escapes broad sell-off with little injuries, but downside risks remain EURGBP set the ground for a bullish pivot within bearish channel
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EURGBP fails to touch 2-year low Momentum oscillators suggest a positive move EURGBP finally reversed to the upside before touching the two-year low of 0.8382, with immediate resistance coming from the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) near the 0.8430 bar. The downward pattern started at the end of April, however, and may not change unless the market manages to crawl substantially above the descending trend line.
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Heightened volatility across all asset classes – Volatility Watch

• Yen crosses are volatile as they retreat from multi-year highs • Volatility in oil and gold surges, Bitcoin follows suit • US equities exhibit higher volatility amid correction fears The euro and dollar pairs maintain low volatility ahead of the US PCE release on Friday and a quiet week on the European data front. On the flipside, volatility in yen crosses has increased considerably as the pairs have been extending their latest pullbacks from multi-year highs.
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PMIs could momentarily take focus away from US developments – Preview

Wednesday's PMI surveys key for both the Fed and the BoE Eurozone PMI manufacturing survey could disappoint again US PMIs unlikely to unsettle September Fed expectations UK figures could surprise on the upside after the general election Important PMI survey prints this week as both the Fed and the BoE meet soon Despite last week’s stock market correction and the latest developments in the US Presidential race dominating the headlines, economic data releases this week sho
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EURGBP rises but the outlook remains bearish MACD and RSI suggest bullish move in near term EURGBP rebounded off the two-year low of 0.8382 that was posted during Wednesday’s session, with the technical oscillators confirming an upside reversal. The RSI is sloping upwards after the pullback from the 30 level, while the MACD is trying to regain some ground beneath its trigger and zero lines.
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Market Comment – Stocks suffer a fall but not sounding the alarm yet

Stocks under pressure but dollar fails to make gains ECB meets today, unlikely to produce a dovish shift Pound ignores data; yen continues to rally against the dollar Stock markets under pressure; feels like 2007 again Following last weekend’s events, the market is probably paying more attention to Donald Trump’s economic plan.
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Technical Analysis – EURGBP trades to a new 2024 low

EURGBP drops to the lowest level since August 2022 Political unrest and weaker economic data keep the euro under pressure Momentum indicators could point to a reversal soon EURGBP is hovering around the lowest level since August 2022, having recorded a decent correction from the early July local peak. The newfound political stability in the UK is supporting the pound while the euro remains under pressure on the back of the political unrest in France and a series of weaker economic
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Higher market volatility led by yen, gold and equities – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility remains low despite weekend’s events Volatility in commodities jumps, apart from oil Stock indices experience stronger volatility, decoupling from Bitcoin Euro/dollar volatility remains very low despite last week’s weaker CPI report and the weekend’s gun attack on the Republican Presidential candidate. On the flip side, volatility in yen crosses has increased considerably as the BoJ is rumoured to have intervened last week in dollar/yen, ahead of the
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Market Comment – A confused market tries to find its footing

Dollar is steadier following the weekend’s events Chairman Powell speaks today as outlook becomes challenging Bitcoin benefits from developments and gold remains above $2,400 China’s CPC plenary starts today and could generate headlines Market digests the events of the weekend A numb start to the trading week as the market is digesting the weekend’s events regarding the US Presidential candidate Donald Trump.
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EURGBP meets resistance at 20-day SMA Momentum oscillators extend bearish structure. EURGBP is currently fighting with the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) near 0.8450, failing to extend the pullback from 0.8430 to the upside. The RSI is moving lower below the 50 territory, while the MACD is extending its negative momentum beneath its trigger and zero lines.
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Lower FX volatility as equities appear agitated – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility drops aggressively Volatility in commodities increases a tad, apart from oil S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 indices’ volatility jumps Euro/dollar volatility has eased further over the past week as the market is feeling more relaxed after Le Pen’s far-right party failed spectacularly to win the highest number of seats in the second round of the French parliamentary election.
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Could the post-UK elections market moves resemble 1997 and 2010?

Thursday's UK elections expected to bring political change Similar developments in both 1997 and 2010 weighed on the pound History points to a significant easing in pound volatility across the board Recent FTSE 100 performance matches the 2015 pre-election moves General election in sight The UK general election will be held this Thursday, July 4, the day that the US will be celebrating its 248th anniversary from the adoption of the Declaration of Independence.
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Yen volatility remains high as equities appear calmer – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility jumps after French elections Volatility in commodities eases, apart from oil Stock indices’ volatility falls ahead of key data releases Euro/dollar volatility has eased over the past week as the market is breathing slightly easier following Sunday’s French elections result. On the flip side, volatility in yen crosses remains extremely high as market participants continue to provoke the BoJ by pushing dollar/yen above the level that led to the end-April
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Weekly Technical Outlook – EURGBP, USDJPY, USDCAD

French elections help euro to recoup some losses Friday’s NFP report is the week’s main driver as USDJPY holds near highs Canadian employment report next in focus with USDCAD in range French and UK elections --> EURGBP The euro experienced an increase on Monday following the initial round of France's election, which resulted in the far-right party taking the lead, albeit by a smaller margin than anticipated.
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Technical Analysis – EURGBP lacks clear direction in short-term

EURGBP fails to recoup the negative gap RSI ticks down but MACD stands above its trigger line EURGBP is heading south after the pullback off the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) around 0.8465. The pair is moving sideways after the European elections and the negative gap that was posted back on June 10. Technically, the momentum oscillators indicate mixed signals.
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Besides commodities, volatility is heightened across the board - Volatility Watch

Yen crosses are very volatile as they approach intervention levels Volatility is extremely low in the commodity sphere US and global equities exhibit volatility jump, Bitcoin follows suit Volatility in yen pairs has been elevated for the past few days as they have been trading within breathing distance from the levels that Japanese authorities were willing to defend in the recent past.
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Market Comment – Busier calendar could support the dollar  

Richer US data calendar and Fedspeak today US stocks in the red again; uptrend intact Key inflation reports from both Canada and Australia Yen shows signs of life but still close to intervention level Dollar remains on the back foot The US dollar remains under pressure against the euro despite the relatively quiet newsflow. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee maintained his relatively dovish stance yesterday with the market focusing more on comments from San Francisco Fed Preside
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Market Comment – Fedspeak and US data could prop up the dollar

Back in action with a full US data calendar and Fedspeak BoE meets but unlikely to produce headlines SNB cuts rates and remains willing to intervene in FX markets Yen underperforms as Japanese officials remain quiet Dollar remains on the back foot The rare mid-week day-off in the US is over with the market mostly preparing for tomorrow’s key release of the preliminary PMI surveys, which are critical for the euro area.
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EURGBP fails to extend the bounce off 22-month low Momentum oscillators show mixed signals EURGBP is falling again today after rebounding off the 22-month low of 0.8396. The pair is still developing well below the medium-term trading range of 0.8620 – 0.8495, confirming the negative structure. According to the technical oscillators, the RSI is falling slightly above the 30 line; however, the MACD is ticking higher, trying to surpass its trigger line in the negative area.
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Volatility skyrockets in FX and stock markets - Volatility Watch

Euro and pound pairs are very volatile but for different reasons Volatility is extremely low in the commodity sphere US and global equities exhibit volatility jump, Bitcoin seems quiet Volatility in euro crosses has picked up as the region suffers from political instability following the EU elections and fears of a renewed debt crisis.
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